Mariposa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

132
FXUS66 KHNX 150730
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1230 AM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Drier and calmer conditions will prevail from this Wednesday
and into the weekend before another trough slides in next
Monday.

2. Probability of reaching 75 degrees will rise to 60% to 80%
by Friday with a 20% to 40% chance of reaching 80 degrees during
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Active weather pattern shifting east this morning as clearing
skies and warming temperatures return to Central California. The
latest storm managed to add widespread accumulation of over one
inch (1.00) of water to Central California with snow level near
6,000 feet as higher elevations received over one foot of new
snowfall. The center of the storm was near Tonopah this morning
and moving further toward the Great Basin this Wednesday. With
this, the storm is expected to move out this morning with
clearing and a trend toward warming temperatures. Beforehand,
while fog has the potential of developing this morning, will
wait until the atmospheric mixing due to higher winds diminish
on Thursday morning.

Ensemble snowfall analysis does a significant drop-off of
probability of greater than 2 inches of 24 hour snow from 5 PM
PDT on Tuesday and 5 AM PDT this Wednesday. Therefore, will
allow the Winter Storm Warning and Advisory to expire this
morning. Afterward, weak ridging over the West Coast will allow
for a slight warm-up as ensemble temperature analysis shows a
rise in Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees
from less than 10% today to between 30%-40% by the weekend. PoE
is much higher (near 75%) around Bakersfield during the weekend
period. While uncertainty remains high, another possible
disturbance is expected to cross the region near the end of next
weekend. Current projections has the next disturbance near
Yosemite by Monday afternoon with the bulk of the disturbances
energy remaining north of Central California.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected during the period. A 15%-25%
probability of IFR visibility will exist between 12Z and 18Z
today.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford